Diary
Is an American attack on Iran imminent?
25 July, 2010
On the face of it, the signs that the US may be about to contemplate military force against Iran should be welcomed. A former head of the CIA, Michael Hayden, told CNN today: "My personal view is that Iran left to its own devices will get itself to that step right below a nuclear weapon and frankly that will be as destabilizing as their actually having a weapon.” The military option, he added, "may not be the worst of all possible outcomes" and it now "seems inexorable."
The reason for the new mood music, if indeed that is what it is, does not appear to be the result of growing pressure from Jerusalem, nor is it the result of a Damascene conversion from the White House. It appears to have resulted from a Saudi ultimatum to the US. King Abdullah is alleged to have told President Obama: "We cannot live with a nuclear Iran."
In itself this is hardly surprising. For years, the Saudis have led a Middle East Sunni bloc that is terrified of Iran's growing power and hegemonic ambitions, a fear that has been exacerbated by Iran's nuclear programme. Saudi rulers know full well the potential for destabilisation in the event that Iran develops even one atomic weapon. So any American change of heart would be welcome, even at this late stage.
But what does it say about Obama that he bends to the will of oil rich autocrats in Riyadh and not his democratic ally in Jerusalem? More to the point, why is Obama having to bow to pressure at all? That he is incapable of asserting American power without being pressured by others is surely the most revealing thing of all.
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